Orrion Covid19 ReportAn assessment of Covid19 in comparison to English Seasonal Flu using data from england.nhs.uk & facts4eu.org.

The area covered by University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay Trust (UHMBT) includes Furness General Hospital, Millom Hospital, Queen Victoria Hospital Morecambe), Royal Lancaster Infirmary, Ulverston Community Health Centre & Westmorland General Hospital with a population of approximately 500,000.

UHMBT Covid19.

This research is intended for the Morecambe Bay area and the death rate is taken directly from england.nhs.uk website 2nd September 2020 The start date for the Covid19 calculations is 2nd March 2020.

All ages of deaths for the UHMBT area for the last 185 days is 171*

Population of UHMBT area:                                                              500,000

The death rate as a percentage in UHMBT:                                   0.0342%


*Total cases where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate in the North West and no positive Covid-19 test result was received is 179. There is no information to identify how many are from the UHMBT area.

English Seasonal Flu.

These figures are for the whole of the England as separate Morecambe Bay area figures were not available. We have used the available 4 years of statistics, which are:

2014/15 28,330

2015/16 11,875

2016/17 18,009

2017/18 26,408

Average total English deaths for the available 4 years:   21,155

The average population of England for the last 5 years: 56,000,000

The death rate as a percentage in England:                       0.0377%

Age Groups of Deaths.

The total English deaths to date are 29,497.

Age Group   Total Deaths    As a percentage of 29,497.

0-19              20                        0.0678%  of 29,497

20-39            213                      0.7221%  of 29,497

40-59            2,291                   7.7668%  of 29,497

60-79            11,213                38.0140% of29,497

80+                15,760                53.4291% of 29,497


If we use the percentages as English Flu for the UHMBT Area (500,000) then we would have the following deaths per age group in the UHMBT Area in the last 176 days:

Age Group Total Deaths      As a percentage of 500,00

0-19            0.1 Deaths         0.058479%

20-39          1.2 Deaths         0.701754%

40-59          13.2 Deaths       7.719298%

60-79          64.9 Deaths       37.953216%

80+              91.3 Deaths      53.391812%


This would mean that the risk of death in the UHMBT Area for the following age groups is:

Age Group     Total Deaths     As a percentage of 500,00

0-19                 0.1  Deaths         0.00002%

20-39              1.2  Deaths          0.00023%

40-59              13.2 Deaths         0.00264%

60-79              64.9 Deaths         0.01239%

80+                  91.3 Deaths         0.01826%

Underlying causes of Covid19 Death.

We have not been able to find any figures for underlying causes with Covid19 even though they must have a significant effect on the total death figures.

Many underlying causes will make Covid19 more dangerous and some of these are Cancer, Heart Disease, COPD, IPF, High Blood Pressure etc.

Conclusions of Covid19 in the UHMBT Area.

With a death rate of 0.0342%, the UHMBT area has suffered less than England as a whole which has a higher death rate of 0.0526% of the population.

The figures confirm that English Seasonal Flu in England as a whole for the 4 years produced a higher percentage (0.0377%) of death compared to Covid19 in the UHMBT area (0.0342%) in 2020.

Covid19 is more dangerous for older people as 91.44% of English deaths are in the extended age group of 60-80+. It is reasonable to assume that there must be a multiplicative effect with age times underlying cause, though to what extent it is impossible to tell. We must assume the UHMBT area is broadly similar to England as a whole.

There appears to be clear evidence of a continual reduction in the death rate as shown in the graph below.


Orrion Covid Graph

We believe that there is just 1 person currently hospitalised with Covid-19 in the UHMBT area and would welcome the UHMBT confirming this.

We have carried out this as a short desk top study for our understanding of the current Covid19 situation and assessing risk.

We would welcome any of this information being challenged.